Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -360 MER +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -8.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -7.0 (+2.0) | 152.6 (+24.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -7.4 (+1.6) | 154.1 (+22.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -6.2 (+2.8) | 150.6 (+26.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -6.5 (+2.5) | 151.8 (+25.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UTC 84 – 75 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 12-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#144) | -3.8 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#153) | -0.59 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#153) | -0.99 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#139) | 0.464 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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