Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -250 MER +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +9 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -8.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -8.8 (+0.2) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -7.3 (+1.7) | 146.9 (+12.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -7.6 (+1.4) | 145.2 (+13.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -8.1 (+0.9) | 146.0 (+13.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#141) | -3.5 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#120) | -0.35 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#129) | -0.60 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#135) | 0.477 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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