Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | MER +100 UTC -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +5 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | MER -2.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.6 (+4.4) | 152.5 (+40.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.0 (+4.0) | 152.9 (+40.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -1.8 (+3.2) | 152.4 (+40.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.0 (+4.0) | 152.8 (+40.2) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UTC 84 – 75 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#255) | -3.2 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#220) | -0.18 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#251) | -0.34 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#252) | 0.475 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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