Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -650 MER +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +15 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -8.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -7.5 (+7.5) | 150.6 (-13.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -7.1 (+7.9) | 150.9 (-13.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -8.4 (+6.6) | 149.5 (-12.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -7.8 (+7.2) | 150.4 (-13.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UTC 84 – 75 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 12-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#123) | -5.9 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#98) | -0.99 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#97) | -1.50 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#72) | 0.455 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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