Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -1450 CIT +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -11.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -11.6 (+2.4) | 145.2 (-3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -8.9 (+5.1) | 141.9 (+0.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -9.2 (+4.8) | 142.7 (-0.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -8.6 (+5.4) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SAM 80 – 64 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#248) | -13.9 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#256) | -2.17 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#256) | -2.95 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#237) | 0.394 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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