Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +440 SAM -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -8.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.4 (+5.4) | 145.1 (+7.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -7.3 (+4.3) | 141.4 (+11.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -7.7 (+4.7) | 142.8 (+10.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -7.4 (+4.4) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SAM 80 – 64 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#347) | -2.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#335) | -0.47 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#337) | -0.61 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#351) | 0.493 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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