Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +350 SAM -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +16 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -1.1 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.1 (-15.9) | 149.4 (-5.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -2.9 (-13.1) | 148.0 (-4.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.3 (-14.7) | 150.5 (-6.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -1.4 (-14.6) | 150.5 (-6.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 18-0 |
| Away | 2-13 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#168) | 5.2 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#229) | 1.35 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#216) | 1.48 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#237) | 0.541 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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