Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -7500 CIT +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +30 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -23.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -19.4 (+10.6) | 152.0 (-10.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -19.6 (+10.4) | 150.8 (-8.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -18.0 (+12.0) | 153.9 (-11.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -20.8 (+9.2) | 155.5 (-13.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SAM 80 – 64 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 0-18 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-12 |
| Away | 9-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L24 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#108) | -15.9 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#87) | -4.04 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#99) | -5.42 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#109) | 0.335 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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