Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -1000 CIT +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +12 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -15.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -13.0 (-1.0) | 150.4 (+21.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -13.1 (-1.1) | 148.9 (+23.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -13.0 (-1.0) | 151.8 (+20.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -13.1 (-1.1) | 151.1 (+20.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SAM 80 – 64 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 3-15 |
| Home | 18-0 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#81) | -4.5 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#49) | -1.12 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#65) | -1.26 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#39) | 0.431 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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