Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +1100 SAM -2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +25 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -16.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -15.2 (-9.8) | 144.0 (-3.0) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -14.9 (-10.1) | 143.1 (-2.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -14.3 (-10.7) | 143.6 (-2.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -13.2 (-11.8) | 142.2 (-1.2) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SAM 80 – 64 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-12 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-12 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L24 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -15.7 (#355) | 4.4 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.92 (#361) | 1.20 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.29 (#360) | 1.29 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#361) | 0.557 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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