Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -1100 DEN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +7 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -11.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -13.3 (-20.3) | 155.0 (-6.0) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -12.3 (-19.3) | 153.7 (-4.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -11.0 (-18.0) | 153.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -11.0 (-18.0) | 155.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | DEN 78 – 70 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | -5.8 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#95) | -1.36 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#104) | -1.82 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#92) | 0.443 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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