Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -1200 DEN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -16.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -12.5 (-7.5) | 149.3 (+23.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -11.7 (-6.7) | 149.4 (+23.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -11.8 (-6.8) | 147.8 (+25.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -11.9 (-6.9) | 149.5 (+23.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | DEN 78 – 70 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#117) | -10.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#158) | -1.75 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#156) | -2.83 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#165) | 0.406 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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