Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | DEN -125 NDSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -5.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.6 (+2.4) | 163.2 (-15.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.9 (+3.1) | 158.9 (-10.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.5 (+2.5) | 159.5 (-11.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.7 (+2.3) | 160.7 (-12.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Jan 19, 2024 | DEN 78 – 70 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#211) | -4.4 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#264) | -0.54 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#255) | -0.90 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#255) | 0.484 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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