Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -138 DEN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -3.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.2 (-5.8) | 159.3 (-11.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -2.5 (-5.5) | 164.2 (-16.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -2.5 (-5.5) | 164.2 (-16.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -1.8 (-6.2) | 162.9 (-14.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#251) | 2.4 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#253) | -0.16 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#255) | -0.08 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#244) | 0.485 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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