Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | DEN +164 NDSU -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -3.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -4.7 (-0.3) | 153.3 (+5.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -3.5 (-1.5) | 153.5 (+5.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -3.0 (-2.0) | 154.2 (+4.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -3.4 (-1.6) | 155.0 (+4.0) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | DEN 78 – 70 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 14-2 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#238) | 2.3 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#237) | 0.58 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#254) | 0.73 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#248) | 0.520 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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