Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | DEN +400 NDSU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +19 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -11.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-40.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -11.0 (-8.0) | 152.1 (-33.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -12.1 (-6.9) | 155.9 (-36.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -12.5 (-6.5) | 155.0 (-36.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -12.9 (-6.1) | 153.3 (-34.3) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | DEN 78 – 70 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#326) | 4.6 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#330) | 0.21 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#347) | 0.23 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#353) | 0.492 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 9.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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