Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -485 EIU +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -8.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -7.4 (+1.6) | 141.5 (+3.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -7.6 (+1.4) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -7.1 (+1.9) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -6.6 (+2.4) | 138.9 (+6.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | EIU 74 – 70 TNST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TNST 66 – 49 EIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TNST 84 – 65 EIU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TNST 78 – 73 EIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TNST 64 – 60 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 10-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#238) | -10.4 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#202) | -1.65 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#224) | -2.25 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#171) | 0.425 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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