Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -230 EIU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -6.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -4.4 (+14.6) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -4.5 (+14.5) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -4.7 (+14.3) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -4.7 (+14.3) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | TNST 77 – 68 EIU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EIU 74 – 70 TNST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TNST 66 – 49 EIU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TNST 78 – 73 EIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TNST 64 – 60 EIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#307) | -10.9 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#332) | -2.83 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#324) | -3.68 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#343) | 0.369 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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