Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -700 USI +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +22 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -13.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -10.2 (+11.8) | 130.2 (-0.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -11.5 (+10.5) | 132.3 (-2.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -10.2 (+11.8) | 129.4 (+0.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -11.7 (+10.3) | 128.0 (+2.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UTM 73 – 56 USI |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTM 79 – 63 USI |
| Dec 21, 2024 | UTM 77 – 46 USI |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UTM 77 – 68 USI |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UTM 86 – 83 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#189) | -11.9 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#133) | -3.03 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#173) | -3.47 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#131) | 0.352 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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