Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -120 USI +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +3 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -2.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -0.5 (+2.5) | 154.3 (+14.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -0.8 (+3.8) | 155.6 (+13.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -1.8 (+1.2) | 154.3 (+14.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -1.3 (+1.7) | 155.7 (+13.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTM 76 – 54 USI |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UTM 73 – 56 USI |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTM 79 – 63 USI |
| Dec 21, 2024 | UTM 77 – 46 USI |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UTM 77 – 68 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#250) | -3.4 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#235) | -0.38 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#248) | -0.61 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#251) | 0.485 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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