Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | USI -230 UTM +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +31 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | USI -8.0 (-39.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -6.1 (-37.1) | 144.5 (-21.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -3.4 (-34.4) | 144.0 (-21.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -5.0 (-36.0) | 139.9 (-16.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USI -4.6 (-35.6) | 142.0 (-19.0) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTM 76 – 54 USI |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UTM 73 – 56 USI |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTM 79 – 63 USI |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UTM 77 – 68 USI |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UTM 86 – 83 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#235) | -7.7 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#267) | -2.00 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#253) | -3.21 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#279) | 0.384 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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