Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UND -125 OMA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UND -1.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -1.4 (+1.6) | 146.0 (+3.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -0.5 (+2.5) | 144.8 (+4.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.6 (+2.4) | 150.3 (-1.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -1.0 (+2.0) | 149.1 (-0.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | OMA 90 – 79 UND |
| Feb 7, 2025 | OMA 80 – 77 UND |
| Jan 3, 2025 | OMA 95 – 85 UND |
| Mar 11, 2024 | OMA 73 – 72 UND |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UND 99 – 78 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#274) | -5.5 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#238) | -1.04 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#258) | -1.30 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#228) | 0.446 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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