Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -115 STO -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -2.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -0.5 (+15.5) | 129.2 (+2.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -0.0 (+16.0) | 132.6 (-0.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -0.4 (+15.6) | 129.3 (+2.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -0.7 (+15.3) | 129.2 (+2.8) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | STO 58 – 57 FDU |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FDU 71 – 56 STO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | FDU 82 – 69 STO |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FDU 65 – 54 STO |
| Jan 19, 2024 | FDU 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-15 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#330) | -11.0 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#352) | -2.10 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.21 (#349) | -2.81 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#353) | 0.407 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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