Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | STO -142 FDU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | STO -3.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -1.7 (-0.7) | 130.6 (-15.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -0.9 (+0.1) | 132.9 (-17.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -1.1 (-0.1) | 130.1 (-15.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -1.6 (-0.6) | 130.5 (-15.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | FDU 74 – 58 STO |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FDU 71 – 56 STO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | FDU 82 – 69 STO |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FDU 65 – 54 STO |
| Jan 19, 2024 | FDU 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-15 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#328) | -12.1 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#350) | -2.45 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#349) | -3.04 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#348) | 0.386 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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