Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | STO +160 FDU -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +7 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | FDU -0.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -1.7 (-5.3) | 146.9 (-1.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -0.7 (-6.3) | 142.6 (+2.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -0.7 (-6.3) | 144.0 (+1.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -1.1 (-5.9) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | FDU 74 – 58 STO |
| Jan 30, 2026 | STO 58 – 57 FDU |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FDU 71 – 56 STO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | FDU 82 – 69 STO |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FDU 65 – 54 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 0-19 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -15.1 (#350) | -10.8 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#356) | -1.62 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.96 (#357) | -2.36 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#343) | 0.404 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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