Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -175 STO +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +15 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -3.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -1.6 (+13.4) | 141.9 (-14.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -2.5 (+12.5) | 140.2 (-13.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -1.7 (+13.3) | 139.5 (-12.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -1.6 (+13.4) | 140.8 (-13.8) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | FDU 74 – 58 STO |
| Jan 30, 2026 | STO 58 – 57 FDU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | FDU 82 – 69 STO |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FDU 65 – 54 STO |
| Jan 19, 2024 | FDU 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#313) | -9.6 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#324) | -1.41 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#320) | -1.82 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#318) | 0.443 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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