Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | STO -125 FDU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +11 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | STO -5.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -4.1 (-15.1) | 141.8 (-22.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -4.0 (-15.0) | 138.6 (-19.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -4.5 (-15.5) | 138.6 (-19.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -4.6 (-15.6) | 140.2 (-21.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | FDU 74 – 58 STO |
| Jan 30, 2026 | STO 58 – 57 FDU |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FDU 71 – 56 STO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | FDU 82 – 69 STO |
| Jan 19, 2024 | FDU 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#295) | -9.7 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#258) | -1.74 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#251) | -2.24 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#265) | 0.417 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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