Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -185 STO +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -3.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -2.4 (+10.6) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -2.6 (+10.4) | 138.9 (+12.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -2.5 (+10.5) | 136.8 (+14.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -2.4 (+10.6) | 138.7 (+12.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | FDU 74 – 58 STO |
| Jan 30, 2026 | STO 58 – 57 FDU |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FDU 71 – 56 STO |
| Jan 26, 2025 | FDU 65 – 54 STO |
| Jan 19, 2024 | FDU 76 – 69 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#310) | -9.2 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#324) | -1.35 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#320) | -1.71 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#318) | 0.441 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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