Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MERC -345 SFPA +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +9 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -12.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+49.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -8.9 (+0.1) | 132.9 (+54.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -10.2 (-1.2) | 131.9 (+55.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -10.9 (-1.9) | 132.3 (+54.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -10.0 (-1.0) | 131.0 (+56.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MERC 94 – 79 SFPA |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MERC 62 – 58 SFPA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SFPA 73 – 59 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-14 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#275) | -17.2 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#311) | -2.59 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#310) | -3.68 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#299) | 0.392 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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