Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +114 MERC -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +15 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | MERC -5.9 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -4.3 (-10.7) | 135.1 (+37.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -3.8 (-11.2) | 136.3 (+36.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -4.6 (-10.4) | 135.1 (+37.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -4.4 (-10.6) | 136.1 (+36.9) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | MERC 98 – 89 SFPA |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MERC 62 – 58 SFPA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SFPA 73 – 59 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -16.3 (#353) | -7.5 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#354) | -1.79 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.84 (#356) | -2.27 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#353) | 0.432 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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