Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA -155 MERC +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -4.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -1.5 (+12.5) | 134.2 (-2.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SFPA -1.8 (+12.2) | 132.3 (-0.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SFPA -2.1 (+11.9) | 136.2 (-4.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -1.5 (+12.5) | 136.8 (-4.8) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MERC 94 – 79 SFPA |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MERC 98 – 89 SFPA |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MERC 62 – 58 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-13 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#332) | -11.4 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#296) | -1.56 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#305) | -2.06 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#256) | 0.438 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 26.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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