Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MERC +105 SFPA -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -1.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -0.6 (+3.4) | 136.3 (-16.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MERC -2.6 (+1.4) | 134.8 (-14.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MERC -0.5 (+3.5) | 137.4 (-17.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -0.4 (+3.6) | 138.4 (-18.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MERC 94 – 79 SFPA |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MERC 98 – 89 SFPA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SFPA 73 – 59 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-14 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#346) | -10.9 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#309) | -1.73 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#321) | -2.30 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#305) | 0.437 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 25.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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