Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–23 on winners spread MAE 9.9 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UCF @ Houston +12.9 148.4 88% 55–79 ✓
Michigan State @ Minnesota -10.7 130.6 17% 73–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Louisville +15.8 154.0 93% 65–76 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +9.8 143.5 81% 60–59 ✗
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's -6.0 155.9 29% 73–76 ✗
Duquesne @ George Mason +8.0 152.3 77% 71–65 ✗
UTSA @ South Florida +30.1 162.6 100% 88–109 ✓
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic -4.0 168.3 36% 78–76 ✓
Army @ Colgate +13.1 157.2 88% 55–69 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford -5.4 167.6 31% 80–78 ✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb -11.4 153.6 15% 86–66 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +15.4 169.8 92% 55–80 ✓
Butler @ Providence +2.2 182.4 58% 87–97 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland +0.1 152.5 50% 84–89 ✓
Navy @ Lafayette -6.2 138.9 29% 65–50 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State +0.3 156.0 51% 77–62 ✗
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +2.3 148.1 58% 90–61 ✗
Oakland @ Cleveland State -10.5 176.6 17% 78–91 ✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris -2.2 150.6 42% 66–72 ✗
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +6.9 152.6 74% 87–84 ✗
Furman @ East Tennessee State +6.9 143.2 74% 71–75 ✓
UL Monroe @ Old Dominion +15.2 159.1 92% 85–79 ✗
Southern Miss @ Marshall +9.8 151.6 81% 77–81 ✓
Louisiana @ James Madison +9.5 133.3 81% 64–61 ✗
Troy @ Georgia State -5.5 152.6 31% 74–63 ✓
Texas State @ Georgia Southern +4.7 155.2 67% 77–71 ✗
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina -1.0 156.6 46% 70–66 ✓
Texas A&M @ Alabama +7.1 184.2 74% 97–100 ✓
Liberty @ Delaware -10.6 136.6 17% 75–69 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +3.5 146.6 63% 74–68 ✗
Charlotte @ Wichita State +8.8 147.3 79% 64–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +7.2 151.7 74% 67–64 ✗
Creighton @ Georgetown +0.4 149.3 51% 68–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas +14.5 148.7 91% 60–81 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +5.4 154.2 69% 88–84 ✗
UTEP @ Sam Houston +15.4 146.8 92% 66–70 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech -1.8 131.8 43% 72–63 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -2.4 132.3 41% 83–86 ✗
Colorado @ Baylor +6.3 167.1 72% 67–86 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State -3.7 135.0 37% 54–63 ✗
Georgia Tech @ California +11.7 147.0 86% 85–90 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City -4.0 160.8 36% 82–75 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +4.2 159.1 65% 76–63 ✗
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +3.7 152.1 63% 76–87 ✓
Northwestern @ Illinois +15.7 151.0 92% 44–84 ✓
BYU @ Oklahoma State -7.9 170.8 24% 92–99 ✗
Arizona State @ Utah -0.6 165.9 48% 71–63 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kentucky +10.4 155.8 83% 78–94 ✓
Gonzaga @ Portland -25.4 154.3 1% 80–87 ✗
Clemson @ Stanford -4.9 140.3 33% 66–64 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific -6.5 150.2 28% 71–56 ✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +20.1 150.3 97% 60–87 ✓
Pepperdine @ Seattle U +13.0 133.3 88% 81–83 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +8.3 142.6 78% 84–75 ✗
Iowa @ Washington -2.7 141.4 40% 84–74 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico -0.3 154.8 49% 86–66 ✓
Washington State @ Oregon State -2.8 150.6 40% 64–74 ✗
Vermont @ Maine -6.7 130.9 27% 70–76 ✗
Binghamton @ UMBC +15.6 144.4 92% 62–79 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant -0.6 133.9 48% 65–63 ✓
Penn State @ Michigan +29.6 164.5 100% 69–110 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.