Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -258 FUR +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -7.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -6.4 (-2.4) | 143.4 (+2.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.2 (-1.2) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -5.9 (-1.9) | 141.4 (+4.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.9 (-1.9) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | FUR 76 – 61 ETSU |
| Feb 18, 2026 | ETSU 78 – 69 FUR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ETSU 72 – 69 FUR |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FUR 73 – 70 ETSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FUR 65 – 63 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#126) | -1.4 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#176) | -0.03 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#166) | -0.20 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#145) | 0.513 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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