Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -160 FUR +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -4.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -3.1 (-0.1) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -3.2 (-0.2) | 141.0 (+0.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -2.4 (+0.6) | 139.3 (+1.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -2.3 (+0.7) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | FUR 76 – 61 ETSU |
| Feb 18, 2026 | ETSU 78 – 69 FUR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ETSU 75 – 71 FUR |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FUR 73 – 70 ETSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FUR 65 – 63 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#139) | 0.5 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#211) | 0.96 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#194) | 0.65 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#227) | 0.552 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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