Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU +138 FUR -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -0.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -0.5 (-2.5) | 144.9 (-16.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -0.1 (-1.9) | 144.7 (-16.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -1.1 (-3.1) | 143.1 (-15.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -0.5 (-2.5) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | FUR 76 – 61 ETSU |
| Feb 18, 2026 | ETSU 78 – 69 FUR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ETSU 75 – 71 FUR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ETSU 72 – 69 FUR |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FUR 73 – 70 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#213) | 0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#179) | 0.02 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#180) | 0.00 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#172) | 0.497 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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