Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -425 DUQ +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -7.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.2 (-15.2) | 145.7 (-9.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -7.4 (-13.4) | 145.2 (-9.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -7.0 (-13.0) | 145.7 (-9.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.4 (-13.4) | 147.5 (-11.5) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 68 GMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUQ 59 – 51 GMU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | DUQ 75 – 52 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#81) | 3.0 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#40) | -0.03 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#51) | 0.11 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#29) | 0.506 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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