Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -250 GMU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +23 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -5.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -3.4 (+19.6) | 137.5 (-10.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -5.0 (+18.0) | 140.3 (-13.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -5.3 (+17.7) | 139.4 (-12.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -5.6 (+17.4) | 139.1 (-12.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | DUQ 71 – 65 GMU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 68 GMU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUQ 59 – 51 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#120) | 1.6 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#117) | 0.18 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#123) | 0.29 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#107) | 0.528 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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