Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -138 DUQ +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +8 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -3.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.9 (-10.9) | 135.0 (-25.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.8 (-11.8) | 133.4 (-23.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.7 (-11.7) | 134.3 (-24.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.7 (-11.7) | 134.6 (-24.6) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | DUQ 71 – 65 GMU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 68 GMU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | DUQ 75 – 52 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#96) | 4.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#94) | 1.01 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#97) | 1.16 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#71) | 0.562 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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