Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MINN +360 MSU -470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -11.1 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -10.1 (+13.1) | 135.7 (+13.3) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -10.2 (+13.2) | 133.6 (+15.4) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -11.2 (+14.2) | 131.8 (+17.2) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -10.8 (+13.8) | 133.9 (+15.1) | 16% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2025 | MSU 73 – 51 MINN |
| Dec 5, 2024 | MSU 90 – 72 MINN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSU 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | MINN 59 – 56 MSU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MSU 76 – 66 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#85) | 21.1 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#92) | 4.03 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#88) | 5.42 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#179) | 0.648 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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