Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -333 MINN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -7.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -7.4 (+2.6) | 134.6 (+9.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -7.1 (+2.9) | 133.7 (+10.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -7.0 (+3.0) | 132.8 (+11.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -7.8 (+2.2) | 133.5 (+10.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MINN 76 – 73 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | MSU 73 – 51 MINN |
| Dec 5, 2024 | MSU 90 – 72 MINN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | MINN 59 – 56 MSU |
| Jan 18, 2024 | MSU 76 – 66 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#20) | 7.5 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#58) | 1.10 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#44) | 1.54 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#56) | 0.505 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.