Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -3600 ND +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -16.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -16.4 (-5.4) | 152.6 (-11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -15.2 (-4.2) | 150.5 (-9.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -15.8 (-4.8) | 150.6 (-9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -14.7 (-3.7) | 152.9 (-11.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2025 | LOU 75 – 60 ND |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ND 72 – 50 LOU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | ND 76 – 62 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ND 63 – 57 LOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ND 82 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 21.0 (#12) | 7.2 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#28) | 1.18 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.69 (#27) | 1.62 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#35) | 0.548 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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