I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Atlantic Coast Conference · KFC Yum! Center · February 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread LOU -19.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money LOU -3600 / ND +1500
Model Predictions
Spread Total LOU win
Actual LOU +11 141 Won
Massey LOU -16.8 (-5.8)
Massey Totals 154.8 (-13.8)
Bradley-Terry 89%
Weighted B-T 93%
Efficiency Plus ML LOU -15.2 (-4.2) 150.5 (-9.5) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML LOU -15.8 (-4.8) 150.6 (-9.6) 88%
Baseline ML LOU -14.7 (-3.7) 152.9 (-11.9) 88%
Baseline Plus ML LOU -16.4 (-5.4) 152.6 (-11.6) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 17, 2025 LOU 7560 ND
Feb 22, 2024 ND 7250 LOU
Jan 28, 2023 ND 7662 LOU
Feb 10, 2022 ND 6357 LOU
Jan 22, 2022 ND 8270 LOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LOU ND
Overall 24-11 13-18
Conference 11-7 4-14
Home 15-2 10-7
Away 4-7 2-9
Neutral 5-2 1-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 84.3 74.5
Avg Pts Against 72.5 75.3
Massey 21.0 (#12) 7.2 (#84)
Bradley-Terry 2.76 (#28) 1.18 (#78)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.69 (#27) 1.62 (#79)
RPI 0.602 (#35) 0.548 (#84)
Shooting & Four Factors LOU ND
FG% 46.3% 45.0%
3PT% 34.8% 35.2%
REB / G 40.4 37.1
OREB / G 12.3 11.2
AST / TO 1.53 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.8% 52.3%
TOV% 16.0% 17.0%
ORB% 34.1% 32.2%
FT Rate 26.4% 23.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.2% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 14.0%
DRB% 72.9% 74.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 25.5%

Game Analysis

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