Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ND +275 LOU -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +15 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -6.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -5.9 (-9.1) | 144.4 (-9.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -5.0 (-10.0) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -6.2 (-8.8) | 144.4 (-9.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -6.2 (-8.8) | 143.6 (-8.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LOU 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ND 72 – 50 LOU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | ND 76 – 62 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ND 63 – 57 LOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ND 82 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 18-2 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#91) | 16.2 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#162) | 2.76 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#131) | 3.42 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#189) | 0.615 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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