Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -163 ND +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +22 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -1.3 (-23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -0.5 (-22.5) | 136.3 (-14.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -0.8 (-21.2) | 135.6 (-13.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -1.0 (-23.0) | 136.9 (-14.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -0.7 (-22.7) | 136.8 (-14.8) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LOU 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 17, 2025 | LOU 75 – 60 ND |
| Jan 28, 2023 | ND 76 – 62 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ND 63 – 57 LOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ND 82 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 7-11 | 9-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#178) | 1.0 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#215) | -0.06 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#203) | -0.01 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#266) | 0.480 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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