Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +12 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -1.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -0.2 (-12.2) | 138.5 (+13.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.9 (-12.9) | 137.2 (+14.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -0.8 (-12.8) | 137.5 (+14.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -0.4 (-12.4) | 139.3 (+12.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LOU 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 17, 2025 | LOU 75 – 60 ND |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ND 72 – 50 LOU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | ND 76 – 62 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ND 63 – 57 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#110) | 6.6 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#106) | 1.32 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#112) | 1.55 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#89) | 0.568 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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