Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ND -500 LOU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ND -12.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -11.1 (+2.9) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -10.0 (+4.0) | 141.5 (-3.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -9.5 (+4.5) | 142.4 (-4.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -11.0 (+3.0) | 141.7 (-3.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LOU 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 17, 2025 | LOU 75 – 60 ND |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ND 72 – 50 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ND 63 – 57 LOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ND 82 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-8 | 4-13 |
| Away | 0-10 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#174) | -9.3 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#193) | -2.42 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#190) | -2.24 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#192) | 0.423 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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