Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +6 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | ND -7.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -7.7 (-1.7) | 134.5 (-14.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -7.3 (-1.3) | 136.7 (-16.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -7.9 (-1.9) | 137.3 (-17.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -7.7 (-1.7) | 136.8 (-16.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LOU 76 – 65 ND |
| Feb 17, 2025 | LOU 75 – 60 ND |
| Feb 22, 2024 | ND 72 – 50 LOU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | ND 76 – 62 LOU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | ND 82 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#72) | 2.9 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#57) | 0.52 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#60) | 0.60 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#49) | 0.524 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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