Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | FAU +142 TLSA -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +2 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -3.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -1.5 (-0.5) | 157.0 (-3.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -2.4 (+0.4) | 159.1 (-5.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -2.2 (+0.2) | 160.2 (-6.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -1.5 (-0.5) | 159.5 (-5.5) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | FAU 79 – 55 TLSA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | FAU 102 – 70 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#104) | 11.2 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#98) | 1.71 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#95) | 2.08 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#72) | 0.586 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 35.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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