Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -4000 TLSA +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +32 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -16.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -18.4 (+13.6) | 157.7 (+14.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -13.2 (+18.8) | 156.0 (+16.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -13.4 (+18.6) | 156.6 (+15.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -14.1 (+17.9) | 157.8 (+14.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | TLSA 78 – 76 FAU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FAU 79 – 55 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#31) | 0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#32) | -0.14 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#37) | -0.19 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#21) | 0.470 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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