Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | LT -120 NMSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +9 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -1.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -1.5 (-7.5) | 133.6 (+1.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -1.5 (-7.5) | 133.1 (+1.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -0.8 (-8.2) | 133.7 (+1.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -1.4 (-7.6) | 134.6 (+0.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | NMSU 67 – 55 LT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NMSU 78 – 48 LT |
| Feb 25, 2024 | LT 67 – 58 NMSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | LT 73 – 53 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#239) | -0.3 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#211) | -0.68 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#226) | -0.51 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#223) | 0.486 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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